Good News in the Fight Against Covid 19

“The rising death toll…”

It is a phrase we hear often coming from the news, and our social media feeds. It is an attention-grabber for sure. But does it give us an accurate picture of how we are doing in the United States in our fight against Covid-19?

As it turns out, the answer is *no*. The death toll can only tell us how many people have died accumulatively since the virus began to spread in January. No matter how well we do in combatting the virus, that number will grow, until we have eradicated the virus altogether. The same can be said of focusing on the number of corona virus cases, tracked either per day, or accumulatively. There are too many variables, such as increased testing, shifting demographics in infected persons ect. for that metric to give us the big picture.

In order to avoid missing the forest for the trees, the most important indicator of our status in the fight against corona virus is the number of new deaths per day. If that number is increasing, we are clearly losing ground. If it is decreasing, then we can be cautiously optimistic that progress is being made.

According the data site, the Worldometer, Covid-19 cases have been on the rise, but daily deaths have been on the decline as states have been reopening in the U.S.

Source: [https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

I hadn’t heard of the Worldometer before, so I did a little digging. I fact checked with the CDC website, and I found the same data. Covid-19 deaths peaked around mid April at 16,370 on the 18th, and have been on the decline all the way through June 27th in which there were 229 deaths reported (the latest date that the site had data for).

Source: [https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3c4GsQsyih5WZQv9WBN82XgOGSVYXj-wD8ynIi59b6QsN-ZRd3-OrZu7w](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3c4GsQsyih5WZQv9WBN82XgOGSVYXj-wD8ynIi59b6QsN-ZRd3-OrZu7w)

One of the likely reasons for this is that the average age for infected persons is trending toward the younger. According to Time magazine, the majority of people testing positive for Covid-19 in the U.S. as of June 19 are under the age of 60. This is likely the result of both increased testing, and the fact that younger people are more likely to go out in public ([https://time.com/5858593/younger-people-covid-19/](https://time.com/5858593/younger-people-covid-19/)).

It may sound problematic that more people are getting the virus, since they can bring it back home to their loved ones who are vulnerable to the disease. But that is not being borne out in the data. We are seeing a consistent trend in decreased mortality over a period of roughly two, and a half months. That is more than enough time to allow for the fact that deaths are a lagging indicator of overall progress.

This is important in that it demonstrates a point that should be a matter of common sense, yet is all too often forgotten in the hysteria that is whipped up by the constant barrage of doomsday predictions, and fear-fueling articles that pop up on our social media feeds. That point is that the corona virus is not the boogey man that attacks you in your sleep. Granted, just as it is with any risky behavior, tragedy can strike anyone at anytime. But still, one’s risk of dying from the disease is far from beyond his or her own control. The younger take calculated risks, and the older, and immune-compromised play it safer. The result is a gradual, non-linear, yet unmistakable march toward progress.

There are other signs of hope. A new drug that is going through clinical trials in the U.K. called Dexamethasone, is already showing promise in reducing Covid-19 mortality. In fact, according to researchers, Dexamethasone – an immunity boosting steroid – has the potential to reduce deaths by one third, for those on ventilators, according to a recent article published by the BBC ([https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53061281](https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53061281)).

On the prevention side, two notable studies have shown a strong relationship between Vitamin D deficiency, and Covid-19 mortality ([https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/comment/vitamin-d-covid-19/](https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/comment/vitamin-d-covid-19/)). Although no clear causal link has been proven, we have good reason to believe that one exists because Vitamin D plays a vital role in immune system function. This gives us, yet, another weapon in our arsenal against the disease. It shows us also, that this is a war that must be fought on two fronts: the prevention side (wearing masks, physical distancing etc.), and the immunity side (getting plenty of sunlight, sleep, nutritious food, and cultivating a healthy state of mind).

Another interesting data point is the number of Covid-19 deaths per million in the U.S. It is in the 300s currently. That includes New York, which takes what would otherwise be a much lower number, and skews it upwards. Still, that puts the U.S. deaths per million lower than that of the U.K., France, Spain, Italy, and Sweden. 

Source: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million)

None of this is said to make an argument against shelter-in-place orders, wearing masks, or social distancing. As with any major societal problem, there is a difficult balance to strike between public safety, economic productivity, and individual liberty. It would be arrogant of me to pretend that I have the answer to where that balance lies. The point here is that we are doing better than we think we are. We are making progress. And if we renew our commitment to support each other in getting through this together, we will make it through.

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Taken from [https://themanicmanifesto.wordpress.com/2020/06/27/a-word-about-covid-19/](https://themanicmanifesto.wordpress.com/2020/06/27/a-word-about-covid-19/)